Election Eve: Women Outpacing Men In Early Vote, 77 Million Have Cast Ballots
Plus, abortion is on the ballot in 10 states
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Good morning,
Live from New York…. it’s Vice President Kamala Harris. The Veep made a last-minute ‘Saturday Night Live’ appearance this weekend. Comedian Maya Rudolph, who plays Harris this 50th season, had a pep talk with the actual Harris using word-plays around Kamala: mamala, palmala, rom-comala, pajamala … the list goes on and onala.
Trump has hosted the show twice (but not this election cycle)— including in 2015, when he was a presidential candidate. Hillary Clinton also hit the stage in 2015. Barack Obama made appearances during his run for the White House in 2007.
While those candidates appearances were further from Election Day, John McCain, alongside Tina Fey playing his running mate Sarah Palin, also appeared on SNL the Saturday before the election.
Not everyone is laughing: FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr, a GOP Trump appointee, claimed that Harris’s appearance violated the “equal time” rule which seeks to “ensure that no legally qualified candidate for office is unfairly given less access to the airwaves — outside of bona fide news exemptions — than their opponent.”
UPDATE: On Sunday, it appears NBC tried to give Trump equal time. During a NASCAR broadcast, Trump appeared in a 90 second ad (the same amount of time Harris appeared on SNL) where he spoke directly to camera. He claimed that electing Harris would cause a “depression” and that viewers should “go and vote.”
Have a good one!
Mosheh, Jill, & Lauren
PS: Don’t forget to refer friends & family to subscribe to the Mo Newsletter… you could get free Mo News merch — DETAILS at the bottom of this newsletter!
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📌 MORE THAN HALF OF LIKELY VOTERS HAVE ALREADY CAST THEIR 2024 BALLOTS
It’s Election Eve in America, but it appears a majority of likely voters have already cast their ballots. More than 77 million Americans— nearly half of the 155 million who voted in 2020— have already voted. While we don’t know who they voted for, we are going through the available data for insights into what this will mean for voting patterns and results.
THE NUMBERS
2020 had the highest voter turnout by percentage in over 100 years, and some states are set to blow past that record.
As of Sunday evening, voting had been under 2020 levels. Via: Washington Post.
In battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina, about 80% of the 2020 vote count has already been cast. For Georgia, more than 90% of those were cast in-person.
Early voting in Connecticut, Delaware and South Carolina has surpassed 2020 levels.
Blue Wall states Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are behind 2020 levels, while Michigan has surpassed 2020’s early voting.
Slightly more registered Democrats than Republicans have early voted (38% to 36%) as Republicans returned to early voting.
The change: Former President Trump is encouraging voters to get out early this cycle, unlike 2020 when he said mail ballots may be “manipulated” and told voters to only come out on Election Day.
Take it with a grain of salt: Some Republicans are pointing to turnout numbers as a sign of growing support, but most of the registered Republicans voting early are not new voters— signaling a change in voting style from when they waited for Election Day in 2020. Though, they have seen a surge of first time GOP men in the swing state of Arizona.
Some Republican strongholds are having massive bumps early voting. Via: Washington Post
THE GENDER QUESTION
Women have outpaced men in early-voting turnout by 10 percentage points - a trend the Harris campaign and Democrats see as reason for optimism, as polls women back Harris by a sizable margin. 54% of early voters nationally as of Friday have been women and 44% men. The margin is about the same as the 2020 election. We will not know how they voted until polls close, but we can look to the latest surveys for guidance.
The latest polling from NBC and other organizations shows a 34 point gender gap— the largest gender split in modern presidential history.
Harris is currently getting the support of 57% of female voters, leading Trump by 16 points. In 2020, President Biden won 55% of women voters, while Trump won 44%, and in 2016, Hillary Clinton won 54% of women voters, while Trump won 39%.
Meanwhile, polls show that Trump has the support of 58% of men, leading Harris with that group by 18 points. As far as who is more likely to vote, keep in mind that women typically vote in larger numbers than man. 10 million more women than men voted in 2020.
Net gender gap of 34 points. Via: NBC News.
Back to early voting: Zooming in on swing states, women have a double-digit voter turnout edge over men in Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia. Women in Wisconsin are not far behind other states with an 8-point edge. However, women in Nevada and Arizona are NOT pulling far ahead of men− part of why the Trump campaign thinks the states can flip back to red from 2020. We should also note that we don’t know which candidate the early voters have cast their ballots for, so don’t read TOO much into this.
One of the theories behind the massive gender gap this cycle is that it’s the first election after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Vice President Harris has made the issue central to her campaign, and is hoping it can get her to the White House.
THE SURPRISING IOWA POLL
One state we haven’t talked about until now: Iowa. A new poll from the most reliable pollster in the state actually has Harris beating Trump 47% to 44% in Iowa. The survey previously showed Trump with an 18-point lead over the summer.
Sure, it’s just one poll. But, Iowa was considered a safe Republican state. If the poll is even in the ballpark of accurate, it sheds light onto who Harris is driving: Women— particularly those who are over age 55 and/or are politically independent. Why? NBC’s Steve Kornacki (below) is pointing to abortion.
Very few people think Harris can actually win Iowa at this point (not even folks we spoke to inside her campaign). But, if the poll is an indication that Iowa is even close, it may be a sign of voter movement below the radar in neighboring Wisconsin, and potentially other states.
📌 ABORTION ON THE BALLOT: A LOOK AT THE STATES AT PLAY
Abortion is going to be on the ballot in 10 states— including five of those with strict bans. If passed, the state constitutional protections would be the most significant expansion of access to the procedure since Roe v. Wade was overturned, and roughly two dozen states have enacted abortion restrictions.
STATES AT PLAY
Of the ten states, eight require 50% of the votes to pass while Florida requires 60% and Colorado 55%.
One of the biggest challenges is in Florida, where a six-week ban went into effect in May. Amendment 4 seeks to override that ban and enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution.
Missouri and South Dakota currently have restrictive abortion bans. The measures would amend the state Constitutions to unwind the bans.
Arizona’s Proposition 139 would allow abortions until fetal viability— between 22 and 24 weeks of pregnancy— instead of its current 15 week ban.
Nebraska has similar limitations, but has dueling ballot measures: Initiative 434 moves to restrict abortion in the second and third trimesters while Initiative 439 creates a Constitutional right to abortion "without interference from the state” until fetal viability.
Colorado, Maryland, Montana, Nevada, and New York all currently have similar accessibility to abortion. Their measures will enshrine that in the state constitutions.
Democratic voters most often name abortion (16%) as the top issue driving their vote. Via: Gallup.
BEEN HERE BEFORE
The abortion rights side is so far undefeated in red and blue states in 7 votes over the last two years. Constitutional amendments to codify abortion in California, Michigan, Ohio, and Vermont passed. Anti-abortion measures failed in Kentucky, Kansas, and Montana.
⏳ SPEED READ
🚨NATION
📌 NYC declares a drought watch and asks residents to conserve water (AP)
📌 RFK Jr. says Trump would push to remove fluoride from drinking water. ‘It’s possible,’ Trump says (AP)
📌 The "no comment" candidate: Harris strategy clouds how she'd govern (AXIOS)
📌 Jury convicts former Kentucky officer of using excessive force on Breonna Taylor during deadly raid (CNN)
🌎 AROUND THE WORLD
📌 American journalist detained in Iran as Supreme Leader Khamenei threatens US, Israel, State Department says (FOX NEWS)
📌 Classified leaks by detained Netanyahu aide may have undermined hostage operations (AXIOS)
📌 Spain flood survivors hurl mud at the royals and top government officials (AP)
📌 Pro-EU leader ahead in tight Moldovan vote amid claims of Kremlin meddling (BBC)
📱BUSINESS, SCIENCE & TECH
📌 Federal Reserve is set to cut rates again while facing a hazy post-election outlook (AP)
📌 Nearly $1 billion has been spent on political ads over the last week (CNBC)
📌 Trump consults with Musk, Kushner, Wall Street in rush to staff Trump White House (WSJ)
📌 TGI Fridays files for bankruptcy as sit-down restaurant struggles continue (AP)
🎬 SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT
📌 "Dawson's Creek" alum James Van Der Beek announces cancer diagnosis (CBS)
📌 Pete Davidson shows off tattoo removal transformation during SNL appearance (E!)
📌 Chloë Grace Moretz comes out as gay in post supporting LGBTQ+ rights while endorsing Kamala Harris (NBC)
📌 Who won the NYC Marathon? 2024 winners, times and results (CBS)
🗓 ON THIS DAY: NOVEMBER 4
1922: The entrance to King Tut’s tomb was discovered in the Valley of the Kings in Luxor, Egypt. 85 years later, King Tut’s face was unveiled to the public more than 3,000 years after the 19-year-old pharaoh was buried in his Egyptian tomb.
1979: 66 Americans were taken hostage after militants stormed the US Embassy in Tehran. 52 hostage would spend 444 days in captivity.
1997: Shania Twain released her album ‘Come On Over’ with songs ‘Man! I Feel Like a Woman!,’ ‘You're Still the One,’ and ‘That Don't Impress Me Much.’
2001: The first film adaptation of J.K. Rowling's best-selling Harry Potter series, ‘Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone,’ premiered in London.