Dems or GOP: Which Party Is Better For The US Economy?

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Plus, Georgia School Shooter's Father Arrested, Charged

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Good morning,

Nothing says Connecticut like… pizza? Gov. Ned Lamont took to social media this week to share some of the state’s new welcome signs, which make some bold claims.

  • The signs call the state the “basketball capital of the world,”the “foodie capital of New England,” and “the submarine capital of the world.”

    • The what? Connecticut is home to the dominant University of Connecticut basketball program and has a huge US Naval presence. But pizza? The debate is as old as time.

People have thoughts, including New Jersey’s governor. He tweeted, “You’re not even the pizza capital of the tri-state area.”

Have a good one!

Mosheh, Jill, & Lauren

PS: Don’t forget to refer friends & family to subscribe to the Mo Newsletter… you could get free Mo News merch — DETAILS at the bottom of this newsletter!

📌 FATHER OF GEORGIA HIGH SCHOOL SHOOTER ARRESTED

The father of the Apalachee High School shooter has been arrested for “knowingly allowing” his son to have a weapon, according to the Georgia Bureau of Investigation.

Meanwhile, the 14-year-old suspect is expected to make his first court appearance virtually this morning at 8:30amET. The teen brought an AR-15 style weapon into school and opened fire, killing two students and two teachers— the deadliest school shooting this year.

ABOUT THE FATHER:
Colin Gray is charged with four counts of involuntary manslaughter, two counts of second degree murder and eight counts of cruelty to children. Officials say his son killed four people, and wounded nine others (including eight children).

  • The Director of the Georgia Bureau of Investigation said the charges against the father were “directly connected with the actions of his son and knowingly allowing him to possess a weapon.”

THE TIMELINE: We now know that the teen’s father bought the gun six months AFTER authorities first contacted Gray and his family to investigate school shooting threats they believe his son made online.

May 2023: Officials say he and his father were questioned by law enforcement regarding online threats to commit a school shooting.

  • The Jackson County Sheriff’s Office received a tip from the FBI about a threat on the chat platform Discord to “shoot up a middle school tomorrow,” with an email associated with the suspect.

  • At the time, Gray’s son denied any involvement. Colin Gray admitted to investigators that he had hunting rifles in the house, and that his son is allowed to use them when supervised— but that he did not have unfettered access to them.

  • Ultimately, investigators at the time decided that the case would be cleared because they couldn’t prove that the Apalachee shooter was the user behind the Discord threat.

December 2023: Colin Gray buys his son an AR-15 style rifle as a gift for his son last Christmas—who was then in the 8th grade.

📌 WHICH PARTY IS ACTUALLY BETTER FOR THE ECONOMY?

Both Republicans and Democrats argue that their agenda will grow the US economy. This week, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris made their cases.

  • On Thursday, Trump vowed to bring down prices for Americans by lifting regulations and boosting the production of fossil fuels, and floated cutting the 21% corporate tax rate to 15%.

    • He also proposed a government efficiency task force, run by billionaire Elon Musk, adding sweeping tariffs (up to 20% tax on imports), and $10 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade.

While Trump sees tax cuts for businesses and the wealthy as spurring more investment, Harris’s plan focuses on trying to grow the middle-class to boost the US economy.

  • Harris on Wednesday proposed increasing tax deductions for small businesses and $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers. She called on raising the corporate tax rate to 28%, which is less than President Biden’s proposed 40%.

    • Harris vowed to keep Trump’s 2017 tax cuts in place for people earning up to $400,000 per year but raise rates for those who earn more. She has not proposed new tariffs.

  • Both candidates support increasing the child tax credit and eliminating taxes on tips.

BUT WHICH POLICIES ACTUALLY WORK?
One question we get a lot at Mo News: Who’s better for the economy— Democrats or Republicans? The truth is, while we focus a lot on who is president—- and they like to take credit for a good economy and blame their predecessors for a bad economy— it’s not clear how much direct impact they can individually have. There are a lot of factors like the economy they inherited, which party controls Congress, global events, natural disasters, terror attacks, and health crises. Spending and tax policy also may also take years to have their true impact.

On top of that, there are a lot of ways to assess economic strength: GDP, inflation, wage growth, the stock market, and personal income growth. Here’s what we found.

GDP & JOB GROWTH
Since World War II, Democrats have seen job creation average 1.7 % per year when in office, versus 1.0 % under Republicans.

  • US GDP has averaged a rate of growth of 4.23% per year during Democratic administrations, versus 2.36% under Republicans.

    • This is postwar data, covering 19 presidential terms.

  • Meanwhile, a look at job growth over 80 years, as well as over the last 40 years also shows Democratic presidents coming out on top.

INFLATION
Republican presidents tend to preside over lower inflation.

  • Since 1969, in the 32 years that Republican presidents have held office, the average inflation was 4.75%.

    • Under the 23 years of Democratic administrations, inflation averaged 8%.

    • However, Democrats would argue that makes sense since 10 of the last 11 recessions have all come under Republican presidents. Inflation happens to be much lower during a recession.

      • Some Republicans try to blame the Democratic policies that preceded them. Some Democrats say Republicans are at fault for the recessions, and it then falls on their party to fix the economy.

STOCKS
Since 1957, the S&P 500 has achieved a median one-year return of 12.9% under Democratic presidents and a median one-year return of 9.9% under Republican presidents.

  • But there are lots of ways to look at market performance. If you look at the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) or mean annual growth rate of the market, Republicans get a slight advantage.

  • The S&P 500 has seen good years and bad years under Democrats and Republicans. The market likes both traditional Dem spending on the economy, and the GOP’s tax cuts for the investor class.

  • At the end of the day, larger macroeconomic fundamentals (not presidents) control the stock market.

    • Note: Buying and selling stocks based on which political party controls the White House is a bad strategy that has historically leads to poorer returns.

A NOTE ON TAXES
In the last 70 years, Democrats John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama, and Republicans Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush and Donald Trump all cut taxes. For the most part, the most significant cuts were for the richest Americans. Republican George H.W. Bush and Democrat Bill Clinton raised taxes.

⏳ SPEED READ

🚨NATION

📌 New details emerge about the 14-year-old suspect and victims in the deadliest school shooting this year (CNN)

📌 Trump says universities could lose accreditation over antisemitism (REUTERS)

📌 FBI raids homes of top NYC York City officials close to Mayor Eric Adams, sources say (NBC NEWS)

📌 Safety Concerns: Nearly 2,000 drug plants are overdue for FDA inspections after COVID delays (AP)

🌎 AROUND THE WORLD

📌 Olympic marathoner Rebecca Cheptegei killed after she is set on fire by boyfriend (PEOPLE)

📌 US secures the release of 135 Nicaraguan political prisoners (AP)

📌 Telegram founder breaks silence, calls his arrest “misguided”(NPR)

📌 Gunman at Israeli consulate killed by German police on anniversary of Munich Olympics massacre (FOX NEWS)

📌 Netanyahu is unequivocal about ceasefire and hostage agreement with Hamas: ‘There’s not a deal in the making’ (CNN)

📱BUSINESS, SCIENCE & TECH

📌 Snapchat’s ‘disappearing’ messages make it easy for predators to target kids, state lawsuit alleges (VERGE)

📌 Parkinson’s may begin in the gut, study says, adding to growing evidence (WASHINGTON POST)

📌 Verizon is buying Frontier in $20B deal to strengthen its fiber network (AP)

📌 Advertisers plan to withdraw from X in record numbers (CNN)

📌 Youth e-cig use drops to lowest level in a decade (AXIOS)

🎬 SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT

📌 Taylor Swift is back for NFL Kickoff at Chiefs-Ravens game (VARIETY)

📌 Alex Morgan, American soccer star and Olympic gold medalist, announces retirement and second pregnancy (FOX NEWS)

📌 A musician siphoned $10 million in royalties after using AI to create hundreds of thousands of songs, streaming them billions of times (FORTUNE)

📌 Rembrandt painting found in Maine attic fetches $1.4 million at auction (NBC NEWS)

🎉 CHEERS TO THE FREAKIN WEEKEND

Guest User
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